I shudder as I write market outlooks for the upcoming growing season. I will (in my mind, anyway) provide a rational analysis on recommended marketing moves.
The very next day, however, an overnight Truth Social post by President Donald Trump can obliterate those targets upward or downward. Or a war such as the one in Iran can raise grain market havoc.
All this makes me shy about predictions as the 2026 growing season beckons. But maybe — just maybe — this year marks the beginning of a turnaround.
“For corn, I am a bit more optimistic that prices could move higher throughout the planting season,” said Bree Baatz, Terrain market research analyst for grain and oilseeds. “Old-crop record production is being met with record demand, and I don't see anything on the demand side that will decline.”
Exports could even exceed USDA’s forecast earlier this year of 3.3 billion bushels, Baatz said.
“This gives me hope that we will chew through some of these abundant supplies,” she added.
Much hinges on how many corn acres farmers plant this spring. If acreage is along the lines of 95 million acres — the number cited in USDA’s March 31 planting intentions report — and trend line yields dip from 2025’s record yields, supplies may tighten.
“If a 10% stocks-to-use ratio results for new crop, that is more supportive of $5 [per bushel] corn than $4 [per bushel] corn,” Baatz said.
Meanwhile, watch Brazil. “They’re having a delayed harvest with soybeans,” Baatz said. “The more they are delayed, the less corn they will be able to plant.”
That’s significant because most of Brazil’s spring corn crop is exported.
“So, if they have any kind of hiccup, less exports on the corn side could help draw down ending stocks,” Baatz said. “So, I think the likelihood of corn prices moving higher is likely.”
It’s opposite day for soybeans
Demand is fuzzier for soybeans due to two wild cards, Baatz said:
- geopolitics, primarily in China
- domestic biofuel policy
At press time, both are unknown.
“It’s likely that news will be positive in the biofuel space,” Baatz said. “We're expecting EPA to come out with renewable volume obligations that are higher than what we've had historically — almost double, at 5.6 billion gallons this year.”
This synchs with Section 45Z moves made last year in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that prioritized domestic feedstocks, Baatz added. Section 45Z is a provision that gives federal tax credits to biofuel manufacturers who make low-carbon fuels.
“This would prioritize the use of soybean oil,” Baatz said. “This gives me hope that we will see soybean oil [and soybean prices] rally.”
And then there’s China.
“Typically, they buy about 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually from the U.S.,” Baatz said. “That would be more than double from what they’ve done this year, at 12 million metric tons.”
At press time, there were rumblings that China may buy another 8 million metric tons, which could tighten soybean supplies.
What could go wrong?
U.S. soybean acreage and production — coupled with good weather in both the U.S. and Brazil — could increase global soybean stocks.
“South America also could continue to increase production,” Baatz added. “Depending on what's happening in the Southern Hemisphere, both old crop and new crop could pressure global prices and exports in the United States.”
Another bearish wild card is if EPA pulls back on its renewable volume obligations or doesn’t prioritize use of domestic feedstocks as much as originally thought. And if trade commitments from China fall through, stocks will climb and further pressure prices.
“There’s still optimism for higher prices, but be prepared for extreme volatility, especially on the soybean side,” Baatz said.
Upshot: Reward rallies.
“Understand your cost of production and breakeven threshold so you can act on anything that could spark the market,” Baatz said. “We could have short-lived rallies, so it’s important to reward them, because things will change.”