Farmprogress

Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!

Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Corn-powered vehicles and airplanes? The possibility is not far off, according to Illinois farmer and FedEx pilot Chris Gould, citing recent legislation and other developments driving corn’s potential as a renewable energy source. “It would be cool to be burning the product I’m growing,” Gould told our Ava Splear. “Sustainable aviation fuel has the potential to be a massive market for corn.”

Corn down for week as harvest advances

July corn rose 1.5 cents to $4.8550 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 4.75 cents Thursday to $4.84 and breaking a four-day losing streak. Futures are still down from $4.9025 at the end of last week and poised for a second consecutive weekly decline. December futures fell 0.5 cent to $4.56 after adding 2 cents Thursday to $4.5650. The new-crop contract is down from $4.66 at the end of last week and barring a rally today will end a three-week winning streak.

Corn technicals appear to have stabilized after July futures rebounded from two-week lows reached mid-week, with the most-active contract holding support at the 20- and 100-day simple moving averages, currently $4.7925 and $4.7825, respectively. Additional near-term support is seen at this week’s low of $4.7725. Initial resistance comes in at the 10-day SMA around $4.8825 and this week’s high at $4.95.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose slightly over 0.5 cent Thursday to $4.50, down about 4.5 cents for the week.

Corn futures extended Thursday’s technical rebound overnight but remain down for the week amid an ahead-of-schedule U.S. planting pace that’s raised odds for a big crop. Midwest rains this week may have slowed fieldwork but also boosted soil moisture in many dry areas. Strong export demand continues to underpin prices.

Early Thursday, USDA reported net weekly U.S. corn export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year at 1.153 million metric tons (45.4 million bushels), down 26% from the previous week but up 1% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the high end of analysts’ expectations. Japan was the week’s top buyer at 629,200 metric tons. Exports for the week totaled 1.78 MMT, up 1% from the four-week average.

For the 2024/25 marketing year to date, accumulated U.S. corn exports totaled 40.19 MMT (1.58 billion bushels, up 26% from the same period in 2023/24. Mexico ranks as the top destination, accounting for 34% of total shipments.

December corn futures have been under pressure this month from an outlook for a large jump in plantings. But recent history suggests a summer rally is still a strong possibility, according to adviser Naomi Blohm. In an Ag Marketing IQ column, she noted that over the past 17 years, December futures on average have rallied 91 cents.

Soybeans boosted by soyoil rally, trade hopes

July soybeans rose 3 cents to $10.65 late in overnight trading after earlier reaching $10.6750, the contract’s highest intraday price since $10.6850 on February 25. Futures are up from $10.4775 at the end of last week and pacing for a fourth consecutive daily gain. November soybeans rose 5.5 cents to $10.41 after earlier climbing to $10.4325, the new-crop contract’s highest intraday price since $10.4875 on February 28.

The soybean market’s technical posture strengthened this week after July futures broke above the past two weeks’ trading range and surged to a decisive close above the 200-day SMA, currently about $10.50. Upside targets include $10.80, near the late-February highs, and the high so far this year at $11.0475. Initial support comes in at the 10-day SMA around $10.5125 and this week’s low of $10.4075.

Barchart’s national front month cash soybean jumped about 15.25 cents Thursday to $10.0575, a 2 1/2-month high.

July soybean meal fell $1.10 to $295.60 per ton after closing Thursday at its lowest price since April 7. July soybean oil rose 86 points to 50.93 cents per pound after earlier touching 51.13 cents, the contract’s highest price since October 2023. Based on nearby futures, soyoil is trading at its highest point since December 2023.

Soybean futures climbed this week behind a rally in soyoil and reports Japan is considering an increase in soybean imports from the U.S. as part of tariff negotiations, fueling hopes for stronger demand from outside China. Comments from U.S. officials suggesting possible de-escalation in the trade tensions with China also encouraged buyers.

Slipping U.S. exports and a big crop in South America may limit further price gains. Brazil will export more soybeans to China and more soymeal to its main clients in Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia in 2025 due to the U.S.-China trade war, Reuters reported, citing a director at industry group Abiove.

“Regarding the trade war, the hope is that Brazil, based on its good relationship with trading partners... and as a major food supplier, can make our agribusiness grow even more,” said Daniel Amaral, director of economics and regulatory affairs at Abiove.

Argentina’s primary growing regions are expected to remain mostly dry over the next seven days, which should help accelerate the delayed soybean harvest, Reuters reported, citing a report from the Buenos Aires grains exchange. Heavy rains in March and early April delayed soybean harvest to a level below the average of the last five years, according to exchange.

“High atmospheric pressure conditions will prevail in the coming days, bringing mostly clear skies, causing most of the farming area to see little to no rainfall,” the report said. The exchange estimated the country’s soybean harvest at 48.6 MMT (1.79 billion bushels).

USDA reported net weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 277,000 MT (10.2 million bushels) for 2024/25, down 50% from the previous week and down 25% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the low end of expectations. Mexico was the top buyer at 87,800 MT. Exports for the week totaled 495,400 MT, down 39% from the four-week average.

Soybean exports so far in the current marketing year continue to run at a stronger pace than USDA forecasts for the full year. For 2024/25 to date, accumulated soybean exports totaled 42.76 MMT (1.57 billion bushels), up 12.2% from the same period in 2023/24. USDA currently projects a 7.7% increase, to 1.825 billion bushels for 2024/25.

Wheat down for week as technicals sag

July Chicago SRW wheat rose 4.25 cents to $5.4875 overnight after adding 1 cent Thursday to $5.2925, breaking a three-day slide. Prices rebounded from an early drop to $5.3925, July futures’ lowest intraday price since April 7. The contract is down from $5.6225 at the end of last week and on track for a second straight weekly decline.

Wheat technicals sagged over the past week as July Chicago futures dropped further from this month’s high at $5.71 and closed below the 20-day SMA, currently $5.5275, for the fourth day in a row. Bears may now be setting their sights on the April intraday low at $5.3475 and the contract low of $5.3250, posted March 28.

July Kansas City wheat rose 5 cents to $5.5575 after ending unchanged Thursday following an early decline to a contract low at $5.43. July Minneapolis wheat rose 5.5 cents to $6.1325. Based on the daily continuation chart, HRW wheat is trading near its lowest level in over four years.

Wheat futures have been pressured by rainfall this week in the central U.S., which may bring some relief to the dryness-stressed winter crop. Further declines may be limited by recent dollar weakness and drought in China and the Black Sea region, adviser Naomi Blohm said. She noted that speculators may eventually decide to pare back a heavy short position in wheat futures.

With fund traders remaining net short on wheat futures, reports of crop losses out of those areas or elsewhere might be enough to spur a sizable price run-up. The market “just needs some friendly news to get those funds to buy back short wheat," Blohm told Dow Jones Newswires.

USDA reported net weekly U.S. wheat export sales reductions totaling 145,000 MT (5.33 million bushels) for 2024/25 and net sales of 371,700 MT (13.7 million bushels) for 2025/26. Mexico led 2025/26 buyers at 112,000 MT.

For the 2024/25 marketing year to date, accumulated U.S. wheat exports were still up 11.4% from the same period in 2023/24. Export gains have been led by shipments of hard red winter wheat, which are up 43% year-over-year.

Light rains possible for Midwest over weekend

Variable, mostly light rains are possible across the central U.S. today through Monday, with amounts ranging from 0.1 inch to 0.5 inch, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Eastern Ohio, the southern edge of Indiana and most of Kentucky could receive slightly heavier amounts of 0.5 inch to 1 inch. Southwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle could receive 1.5 to 2 inches of rain.

Early next month, above normal temperatures are expected for most of the Corn Belt and the central and Northern Plains, based on NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook for May 2-8. Precipitation during that period is expected to be near to below normal for most of the Midwest and Northern Plains.

U.S. stocks on track for up week

Stock index futures fell overnight amid ongoing concern over President Trump’s tariffs, but Wall Street was still on track for a positive week. Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq-100 both fell around 0.1%, while futures based on the Dow industrials eased 0.3%. The underlying S&P 500 was up 3.8% so far this week and ended Thursday at a three-week high.

The U.S. dollar index firmed 0.2% and was up slightly for the week as the benchmark stabilized from an early-week drop to the lowest level in over three years. June WTI crude oil declined 78 cents to $62.01 per barrel, down over 3% for the week. Gold futures dropped 1.3% as the market extended a decline from a record above $3,500 per ounce reached Tuesday.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: