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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Hail, wind and tornadoes may be par for the course in the Midwest during spring and summer, but farmers can’t afford to be blasé or complacent over the sometimes-deadly impact of volatile weather. Nebraska Farmer’s Curt Ahrens explains a few key weather points, including why you may want to keep an eye on high-pressure systems off Iceland.

Corn burdened by favorable crop weather

July corn futures fell 2 cents to $4.3650 after gaining 1.5 cents Thursday to $4.3850 per bushel. Old-crop futures are tracking for a third consecutive weekly decline after ending last week at $4.4250. December corn fell 0.5 cent to $4.40, down from $4.4925 at the end of last week.

Nearby futures remain near an eight-month low of $4.2925 posted overnight Tuesday. For December futures, the $4.34 to $4.35 level remains key support, with prices bouncing back following tests of that area at least four times over the past month. Near-term resistance includes the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4.4325 and the June intraday high at $4.5050.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose 1.5 cents Thursday to $4.15, down from $4.1825 at the end of last week.

While crude oil prices surged, the grain markets had a muted reaction after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic-missile sites and military leadership overnight. Israel reportedly killed the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and hit dozens of targets in a major escalation that could spark wider conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. said it played no role in the operation.

Grain market focus shifted quickly back to Midwest weather and early crop development after Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand update was viewed as largely price-neutral, though the report did carry some longer-term bullish figures for corn. USDA cut its estimates for U.S. corn stockpiles at the end of the 2024-25 and 2025-26 marketing years and raised its forecast for 2024-25 U.S. corn exports by 50 million bushels, to 2.65 billion bushels, up 16% from 2023-24.

Ending stocks for 2024-25 were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.365 billion bushels, a drop of nearly 23% from 2023-24. Stocks are seen at 1.75 billion bushels at the close of 2025-26, also down 50 million bushels from last month’s estimate.

Among global figures, USDA cut its forecast for 2025-26 ending stocks by 0.9% to at 275.24 million metric tons (10.8 billion bushels), which would be down 3.4% from 2024-25 and the lowest since 2013-14. Argentina’s and Brazil’s 2025 corn crops were left unchanged at 50 MMT and 130 MMT, respectively.

Also Thursday, USDA reported net weekly corn export sales reductions of 29,600 MT for the 2025-26 crop year, down from 160,100 MT the previous week. Net old-crop sales totaled 791,300 MT, down 16% from the previous week and down 33% from the average for the previous four weeks. Old-crop sales were at the low end of expectations and marked a nine-week low. Japan was the lead buyer at 376,200 MT.

Will China control the global food supply? While U.S. agricultural research funding stagnates at 1970s levels, China has quietly become the global leader in agricultural innovation, investing twice as much as the U.S. This research gap could be costly for U.S. farmers, according to North Carolina State plant expert Steve Lommel.

Soybeans supported by biofuels hopes

July soybeans rose 3.75 cents to $10.46 after slipping 8.25 cents Thursday to $10.4225, down from $10.5725 at the end of last week. November soybeans rose 1.25 cents to $10.2850 but are down from $10.37 at the end of last week.

November futures slipped below the middle of the past two months’ range marked by a May 1 intraday low at $10.1150 and a May 14 intraday high at $10.6550. Near-term resistance for November futures is seen around the 20-day SMA (currently $10.35), while near-term support includes Thursday’s low at $10.22 and last week’s intraday low at $10.1525.

Barchart’s national front-month cash soybean price fell 7.5 cents Thursday to $9.9575, down from $10.1275 at the end of last week.

July soybean meal fell $1.80 to $292.70 per ton after dropping earlier to a three-week low at $292.30. July soybean oil rose 73 points to 48.34 cents per pound after losing nearly 1% Thursday. Futures are still up from 46.89 cents at the end of May.

Soyoil futures gained support Thursday after rumors circulated that the Trump administration may release a renewable fuel volumes proposal today. In May, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency submitted biofuel-related requests to the White House Office of Management and Budget that reportedly included a proposed 5.25-billion-gallon annual volume mandate for biomass-based diesel. That proposed figure would be a sharp increase over the current mandate for 3.35 billion gallons.

Thursday’s USDA data was a mixed bag for soybeans, but the market’s weak close indicated traders are more focused on favorable growing conditions and a longer-term outlook for record global supplies.

USDA left soybean stocks at the end of 2024-25 and 2025-26 unchanged at 350 million bushels and 295 million bushels, respectively, contrary to analysts’ expectations for a small increase in the latter figure. U.S. soybean exports for 2024-25 and 2025-26 held at 1.85 billion bushels and 1.815 billion bushels, respectively.

USDA hiked estimated global soybean supplies at the end of 2025-26 by 0.8% from last month’s figure to 125.3 MMT (4.6 billion bushels), up 0.8% from 2024-25. Brazil’s 2026 crop was pegged at 175 MMT, unchanged from last month. Argentina’s crop was estimated at 48.5 MMT.

Export demand remains soft as buyers shift to abundant supplies from the recent South American harvest.

Net weekly U.S. soybean sales for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year totaled 58,100 MT, up from 3,500 MT the previous week, USDA reported. Taiwan was the week’s top new-crop buyer at 19,500 MT. Net old-crop sales totaled 61,400 MT, down 74% from the four-week average and a marketing year-low.

Wheat rallies limited by improving crop conditions

July SRW wheat futures rose 5.5 cents to $5.32 after rebounding from an earlier drop to $5.2225, the contract’s lowest intraday price since May 15. Futures are down from $5.5475 at the end of last week.

Wheat technicals lean neutral-bearish with July SRW futures trading under most near- and medium-term SMAs, including the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($5.3875 and 5.3750, respectively). Failure to sustain today’s overnight gains could have bears targeting the contract low of $5.0625, posted May 13.

July Kansas City wheat rose 4.25 cents to $5.27. July Minneapolis wheat rose 2.5 cents to $6.2325.

Thursday’s Supply and Demand report had some price-supportive numbers for wheat, but bullish impact was muted by improving crop conditions in winter wheat country and an outlook for a bigger harvest.

USDA kept estimated 2024-25 ending wheat stocks unchanged at 841 million bushels but cut its 2025-26 estimate by 25 million bushels to 898 million bushels. U.S. production of all varieties of wheat in 2025-26 was held unchanged at 1.921 billion bushels, down 2.5% from 2024-25. Winter wheat production was raised about 25,000 bushels to 1.382 billion bushels, a nine-year high.

Global supplies in 2026 are expected to be smaller than previously forecast. USDA cut its forecast for 2025-26 ending wheat stocks by 1.1% to 262.76 MMT (9.65 billion bushels), down 0.5% from 2024-25 and a 10-year low.

Net weekly U.S. wheat sales for the 2025-26 crop year, which began June 1, totaled 388,900 MT (14.3 million bushels), down from 449,100 MT the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer at 97,200 MT.

Rains heading for eastern Corn Belt

Widespread rains are expected across the central U.S. today through Monday, with heaviest amounts expected in the upper Midwest, eastern Corn Belt and Mississippi River Delta, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Rain totals from eastern Kansas through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio could range from 0.5 inch to 2 inches, with lighter amounts likely for the western Corn Belt.

The second half of this month will bring warmer and wetter conditions for the Midwest and Plains, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10 and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover June 18-26. The latter forecast extended a recent call for above-normal temperatures across most of the region along with above-normal precipitation probabilities.

Stock futures tumble after Israel’s strike on Iran

Stock index futures tumbled and crude oil prices soared overnight after Israel’s airstrikes on Iran stoked geopolitical worries, sending investors into safe-haven assets such as Treasury bonds.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 indexes both fell over 1%, futures based on the Dow industrials also dropped about 1%. The U.S. dollar index strengthened 0.6% in a modest rebound from Thursday’s drop to three-year lows.

July WTI crude oil futures rallied over 8% to $73.63 per barrel after climbing near $78, the market’s highest levels since early February.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: