Farmprogress

Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!

Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

A derecho that tore through South Dakota and northwest Iowa early this week caused some property damage but appears to have mostly spared corn fields. Grain markets, for the most part, “shrugged it off,” Iowa farmer Matthew Kruse said in a Farm Futures video interview. But the event served as a wake-up call for what’s often a volatile weather month.

Corn futures show signs of bottoming

December corn futures rose 0.25 cent to $4.14 per bushel late in overnight trading after gaining 1.5 cents Thursday to $4.1375, marking the contract’s first two-day advance since mid-July. September futures were unchanged at $3.94.

The corn market showed some bottoming action during the second half of this week after December futures rebounded from an initial drop Thursday to $4.0875, the contract’s lowest intraday price since the contract low of $4.0750 on July 14.

A higher close today would be the market’s third straight advance and set up a test of the 10- and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs), currently $4.1625 and $4.1750, respectively. Those levels coincide with a downtrend line drawn from the July high of $4.4225. Nonetheless, the market retains a longer-term bearish bias and any extended strength likely should be viewed as a selling opportunity.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose about 2 cents Thursday to $3.7675 as the market extended a modest bounce from a nine-month low earlier this week.

Corn futures generated some late-week buying interest following stronger-than-expected export sales data, as well as some concern over excess rainfall in parts of the Midwest. Reports of pollination problems have also surfaced in recent weeks, though it’s unclear whether yields will be substantially affected. The Midwest is expected to receive a much-needed break from rain this weekend.

Traders are looking ahead to USDA’s August 12 Crop Production report, which will include the first corn and soybean estimates of the year based on farmer surveys and satellite imagery.

Mostly favorable weather this summer and historically high crop ratings have fueled expectations for a record U.S. corn yield above USDA’s current projection for an average of 181 bushels per acre. Some analysts speculate the average yield could hit 185 bushels per acre, which would produce a crop of nearly 16.1 billion bushels, based on USDA acreage estimates.

USDA’s weekly export sales report showed a sharp spike higher in new-crop corn purchases in late July. Net U.S. corn sales for delivery during the upcoming 2025-26 crop year totaled 1.89 million metric tons (74.5 million bushels), more than double the previous week’s total and a marketing-year high. “Unknown destinations” was listed as the top buyer at 657,700 MT, followed by South Korea at 467,000 MT. Sales figures were for the week ending July 24.

Old-crop sales totaled 340,900 MT, down 47% from the previous week and down 46% from the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the low end of expectations and were led by Japan’s purchases of 175,400 MT.

For 2024-25 to date, U.S. corn export sales (including accumulated exports) now total 2.774 billion bushels, up 28% from the same period in 2023-24 and higher than USDA’s current full-year estimate for 2.75 billion bushels with just over a month left in the marketing year.

Also Thursday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 376,000 MT (14.8 million bushels) for delivery to Colombia, South Korea and unknown destinations, all for 2025-26 delivery. Thursday’s announcement follows several previous “flash” sales totaling nearly 33 million bushels since July 24.

With potential record harvests likely to strain storage capacity, farmers face critical decisions over marketing strategies that could make or break bottom lines. In our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth Video, University of Minnesota economist Ed Usset suggests three steps for farmers to consider in a low-price, heavy-supply outlook.

Soybeans near four-month low

November soybeans fell 2.5 cents to $9.8675 late overnight after earlier hitting $9.8625, the contract’s lowest intraday price since early April. A loss today would be the contract’s sixth straight daily decline. November futures are down from $10.21 at the end of last week. September futures fell 2.75 cents to $9.6675.

Soybean technicals continue to deteriorate following a mid-week chart breakdown, which saw November futures post its first close below $10.00 in almost four months. Prices have dropped over 8% from a June high above 10.74 and there’s little apparent support until the $9.85 area and the full-year low of $9.7125, posted in April.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 4 cents Thursday to $9.3475.

September soymeal fell 20 cents to $265.70 per ton after rising 0.4% Thursday to break a six-day losing streak that sent prices to a string of contract lows. September soyoil fell 39 points to 54.88 cents per pound after tumbling 2.2% Thursday to a two-week low.

Soybean futures extended remain under pressure from expectations favorable weather will persist this month during the crop’s critical pod-filling stage. Forecasts for the first half of August call for a return to above-normal temperatures but aren’t viewed as threatening, with abundant rains during the second half of July fueling improvement in crop ratings.

USDA’s weekly export sales data revealed a sharp jump in new-crop soybean demand, though the overall sales pace continued to lag last year’s levels and China had yet to show up among buyers.

Net sales for 2025-26 delivery totaled 428,500 MT (15.7 million bushels), around the middle of expectations but up 80% from the previous week. Mexico was the lead buyer at 213,200 MT, followed by unknown destinations at 191,500 MT. Old-crop sales totaled 349,200 MT, slightly above expectations and the highest in three weeks. Egypt was the week’s top buyer at 102,400, including 51,000 MT switched from unknown destinations.

For 2024-25 to date, U.S. soybean export sales (including accumulated exports) now total 1.877 billion bushels, up 12.6% from the same period in 2023-24 and slightly above USDA’s full-year estimate of 1.865 billion bushels.

Unlike corn, soybean sales for 2025-26 “are quite weak at this point, trailing last year’s pace by 14.6% with the lack of Chinese demand having a much bigger impact on sales totals given China’s traditional outsized market share of U.S. soybean exports,” StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman said in a note Thursday.

Wheat extends slide to contract lows

September SRW wheat futures fell 4.25 cents to $5.19 late overnight after shedding 0.5 cent Thursday to $5.2325, the contract’s third straight daily drop and a lifetime-low close for the second day in a row. Futures are down from $5.3825 at the end of last week.

Wheat technicals remain weak following the market’s recent downside breakout from the past month’s range. SRW futures are heading for a seventh straight close below the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($5.3450 and $5.3925, respectively). Downside levels to watch include the $5.06 area, a four-year low for a most-active contract posted in May.

September HRW futures fell 3.75 cents to $5.2250 after gaining 4.25 cents Thursday for a second-straight daily increase. September spring wheat fell 2.25 cents to $5.7550 after posting a modest gain Thursday following a rebound from contract lows.

Wheat futures remain under pressure from ample supplies from the nearly-finished U.S. winter wheat harvest, which is outweighing a strong start for U.S. export demand in the new 2025-26 crop year. U.S. wheat export demand in the new crop year slipped last week but continued to run ahead of last year’s levels.

USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended July 24 at 592,100 MT (21.8 million bushels), down 17% from the previous week but even with the four-week average. Sales were at the high end of expectations and were led by 196,900 MT purchased by unknown destinations.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat export sales (including accumulated exports) now total 350.7 million bushels, up 15% from the same period in 2024-25 and 42.5% of USDA’s full-year estimate for 825 million bushels.

Also Thursday, USDA reported a flash hard red winter wheat sale of 100,000 MT (36.7 million bushels) for delivery to Nigeria during 2025-26.

Dry weekend for Midwest, rain in Plains

The central and eastern Corn Belt will be mostly dry today through Monday, while rainfall will be confined to the Plains, based on NOAA’s latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. Much of Kansas and South Dakota may receive 0.5 inch to 1.25 inches of rain and Nebraska could see 0.1 inch to 0.5 inch.

The new month is expected to bring a return of hot weather but also strong precipitation prospects. Temperatures across the central U.S. are expected to climb above-normal levels, according to the latest National Weather Service 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover August 6-14. Above-normal precipitation is expected for the northern and eastern Corn Belt during that period.

Stock index futures slump on trade worries

Stock index futures slumped overnight after President Trump late Thursday signed an executive order imposing tariffs between 10% and 41% on U.S. imports from foreign nations, including a 35% level on some goods from Canada.

Investors are also waiting for this morning’s July jobs report, which is expected to show a slowdown in hiring. Analysts expect nonfarm payrolls rose 100,000 last month following a gain of 147,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq-100 both fell about 1%, while Dow futures dropped nearly 1%. The U.S. dollar index was up about 0.1% after earlier strengthening to its highest level since late May.

September WTI crude oil futures fell 67 cents to $68.59 per barrel while gold futures rose 0.2% to about $3,300 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: