Wet weather will be moving through parts of the upper Midwest, eastern Corn Belt and Ohio River Valley later this week, delivering another 1 to 2 inches or more to some fields between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Later this month, NOAA’s new eight-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally dry conditions for the Great Lakes region and eastern Corn Belt between Nov. 10 and Nov. 16, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for most of the country during this time.
On Wall Street, the Dow dipped 157 points lower in afternoon trading to 51,826, partly due to flailing Apple stocks following disappointing forecasts. Energy futures were mixed, with Brent crude oil down 1% this afternoon to $103 per barrel. Gasoline futures moved in the other direction, trending 1.25% higher. The U.S. dollar firmed slightly.
Corn prices returned to the red
Traders shrugged off two large corn sales this morning as they concentrated on the prospects of harvesting at or near 16 billion bushels this season. While some experts maintain that USDA’s 181.2 bushel-per-acre assessment is too high, we will have to play the waiting game for now to see if the agency ultimately trims that number. Today, December and March futures each fell 5.75 cents to settle at $4.4250 and $4.5625, respectively.
Private exporters announced two large corn sales to USDA on Tuesday, including 12.4 million bushels to Mexico and 5.4 million bushels to South Korea. Both sales are for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
Corn harvest moved from 60% completion a week ago up to 74% complete through Sunday. That’s a bit behind the prior five-year average of 77% so far. That was also slightly ahead of the average analyst estimate of 73%, with individual trade guesses ranging between 70% and 75%. Progress is likely to lag over the next week, given widespread rains set to move across the central U.S. in early November.
Speculative funds have sold corn over the past two months, but their bearish bets aren’t especially large, noted grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “Overall, they’re still net long, but ownership is transitioning to commercials as farmers move grain off the combine, triggering hedges by merchandisers,” he said. Knorr shared more of his thoughts in the latest Ag Marketing IQ blog — click here to learn more.
The latest monthly National Agricultural Statistics Service Grain Crushing report showed that 438.4 million bushels of corn were used to produce ethanol in September. That was modestly (+0.65%) above year-ago levels and 8.5% below August 2026 volume.
South Korea purchased 2.6 million bushels of corn from optional origins in an international tender that closed overnight. The grain was likely sourced from the United States or South America and is likely for shipment between December and February.
Corn settlements on Monday were for 371,098 contracts.
Soybean prices fail to perk up at Chinese purchases
China purchased another 4.9 million bushels of U.S. beans (more on that below), but traders remained focused for the large part on seasonal harvest progress and the prospect of a record or near-record production this season. January futures dropped 2.75 cents to $12.14, with March futures down 5.75 cents to $12.2075.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. January soymeal futures faded nearly 0.75% lower, while January soy oil futures tracked 0.25% higher.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.9 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
Soybean harvest improved from 79% completion last week up to 88% through Nov. 1. That puts this season’s effort ahead of the prior five-year average of 84%. It also mirrored trade expectations, with individual analyst estimates ranging between 85% and 90%.
The latest monthly Fats & Oils report from NASS showed a soybean crush totaling 198.8 million bushels in September. That was a 5.2% decline from August 2026 volume and a year-over-year decline of nearly 3%. Soy oil stocks sank 14.1% lower from August, falling to 1.457 billion pounds through Sept. 30.
Soybean settlements on Monday were for 287,785 contracts.
Winter wheat prices continued to struggle
Prices saw a brief respite following a robust round of export sales data late last week before mostly returning to a pattern of technical selling that has gripped prices for more than a month now. Today, December Chicago soft red winter wheat futures fell 6.75 cents to $5.9975, with December Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures down 9.75 cents to $6.3625.
Winter wheat planting progress improved from 76% a week ago up to 83% through Nov. 1. That’s slightly behind the prior five-year average of 84%. It was also lagging behind the average trade guess of 86%. Individual analyst estimates ranged between 83% and 90%. Emergence reached 65%, which mirrored the prior five-year average.
The latest NASS Flour Milling report showed 227 million bushels of wheat was ground for flour between July and September. That was a modest decrease of 4.4 million bushels versus the same quarter last year. This is a signal of softer domestic wheat consumption, which is one of four primary demand components USDA tracks for wheat (including exports, seed use and feed/residual use).
Russian consultancy IKAR estimates that the country’s wheat exports will reach 1.451 billion bushels during the 2026-27 marketing year. That is nearly 300 million bushels lower than a prior projection made back in June. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.
And finally, “Even after spending four decades covering the farm equipment industry, watching technology evolve never gets old,” Willie Vogt said. “In examining the changing landscape of aftermarket support this past year, one thing has become clear: The tools farmers now have access to are genuine game changers.” Vogt took a look at everything from aftermarket apps, enhanced dealer support and more — click here for details.
CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 147,035 contracts.