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The current swell of on- and off-farm grain storage is bound to grow even more as harvest rapidly approaches. That makes proactive grain market strategies all the more important. Should you hold out for price peaks or consider another plan of attack? That’s the topic for today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog. Read on for a summary of that analysis, along with other commodity insights.
Wet weather will largely be relegated to the Plains and the southeastern U.S. over the next several days. Of particular note, some areas of the southeast will receive another 3” or more between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the eastern third of the country between August 8 and August 14, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the entire central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow stumbled 549 points lower in afternoon trading to 43,581 amid a bearish jobs report. Non-farm payrolls only added 19,000 jobs in May, 13,000 in June and 73,000 in July – all well below analyst estimates. Energy futures were also in the red, with crude oil spilling more than 2.75% lower to $67 per barrel. Gasoline futures stumbled almost 2.5% lower. The U.S. Dollar weakened noticeably.
NOTE: We are actively surveying growers across the country to learn more about crop conditions ahead of USDA’s August WASDE report. We appreciate your participation, and you can enter a drawing to win one of ten $100 Amazon gift cards. And rest assured, no individual responses are ever reported, we just share the aggregated data. Click here to get started!
Corn prices faced moderate cuts
Traders resumed a pattern of technical selling that led to moderate losses heading into the weekend. September futures fell 4.5 cents to $3.8950, with December futures down 3 cents to $4.1075.
Private exporters announced two large sales of corn to USDA totaling 13.9 million bushels. Both sales are for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year, which begins September 1.
Taking a look back on the first seven months of 2025, the top five buyers of U.S. corn so far this year have been Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan. These destinations account for more than 80% of all U.S. corn exports, which is the highest consolidation over the past decade. That reinforces, among other things, the importance of maintaining strong trade relations with our top agricultural trade partners.
Meantime, traders are mulling various supply and demand factors moving forward. On the supply side, 73% of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition, with expectations that a record-breaking production is still possible for the 2025 season. That said, there are also robust demand projections, including ethanol usage reaching 5.5 billion bushels in 2025-26 and exports climbing to 2.675 billion bushels.
Using a baseball analogy, many marketing experts assert that it’s better to hit singles and doubles rather than swinging for home runs. “The key isn’t to hold out for the price peaks, but to consistently sell at a profitable margin,” according to Jason Meyer, hedging strategist with AgMarket.net. Meyer offers some relevant commentary in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 336,979 contracts.
Soybean prices served up a “nothing burger”
Prices tested modest gains at times during Friday’s session but ultimately settled with no changes. That left August and September futures steady at $9.6175 and $9.6950, respectively.
With expectations of record or near-record crops this season, prices have been pushed below production costs, and many storage facilities are reaching capacity. That leaves farmers with some critical decisions about their marketing strategies. Special guest Ed Usset shares his thoughts on the situation and offers some advice in the latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video – click here to watch and learn more.
China has turned off the spigot for U.S. soybean imports in recent weeks, but the country is still the top destination over the first seven months of 2025, with 669.1 million bushels since the beginning of the year. Mexico, Egypt, Japan and the Netherlands filled out the rest of the top five so far.
Prior to this afternoon’s USDA soybean crushing report, analysts expect the agency to show June volume at 193.4 million bushels. Individual trade guesses ranged between 191.8 million and 195.2 million bushels. That would be a year-over-year increase of 4.2%, if realized. Soyoil stocks are expected to decrease 1.8% to 2.42 billion pounds through June 30.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 203,609 contracts.
Winter wheat prices swiped by bearish sentiment
A glut of supplies overseas, especially the Black Sea region, led to another round of technical selling that led to moderate losses on Friday. Harvest progress in the U.S. applied additional headwinds today. September Chicago SRW futures fell 5.5 cents to $5.37, with September Kansas City HRW futures down 7.5 cents to $5.1875.
Between January and July 2025, Mexico leads all nations for importing U.S. wheat, accounting for 147.0 million bushels. That’s 12.4% higher year-over-year so far. The Philippines, Nigeria, Japan and South Korea filled out the rest of the top five.
Egypt issued the largest international tender ever as it seeks 139.6 million bushels of wheat from optional origins that closes on August 12. The grain is for delivery via a number of shipments between October 2025 and April 2026. Egypt also plans to diversify suppliers beyond its traditional Black Sea sources.
The latest report from FranceAgriMer showed the country’s soft wheat harvest at 86% completion through July 21, which is well above the prior five-year average of 59%. France’s wheat output is expected to reach 1.198 billion bushels this season. France is Europe’s No. 1 grain producer.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 131,891 contracts.