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The USDA-NASS Prospective Plantings report, released this morning, is one of the agency’s most highly anticipated reports of the year, and this one did not disappoint after serving up some interesting data points for traders to chew on. Corn acres came in higher than expected, but prices were still slightly firm – a testament to how much demand bulls are driving the market right now. Soybeans carved out a big win on less-than-expected acreage, meantime, while winter wheat prices captured moderate gains on Tuesday.
A band of rain and thunderstorms will deliver another 1” to 3” from parts of the Southern Plains through the eastern Corn Belt between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some more seasonally wet conditions for parts of the Corn Belt between April 7 and April 13, with warmer-than-normal weather likely for the Midwest and Plains during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow rallied 981 points higher in afternoon trading to 46,197 as investors are increasingly hopeful that fighting in Iran will soon draw to a close. Energy futures softened for the same reason, with Brent crude oil spilling more than 2.5% lower this afternoon to $104 per barrel. Gasoline futures faded almost 1.75% lower. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices shook off overnight losses
Demand optimism was enough to slightly override USDA’s bearish acreage outlook, which predicted more plantings this season than analysts were expecting. July futures inched 0.75 cents higher to $4.6825, while September futures held steady at $4.7025.
USDA-NASS marked 2026 corn acres higher than expected in today’s Prospective Plantings report, with 95.338 million acres. That was nearly 1 million acres higher than the average trade guess of 94.371 million acres. Still, that would be 3% below 2025’s record-breaking 98.788 million acres, if realized.
USDA also updated its quarterly grain stocks data, with corn coming in at 9.024 billion bushels as of March 1, 2026. That was slightly below the average trade guess of 9.104 billion bushels but moderately higher than the year-ago volume of 8.147 billion bushels.
Be honest. Stay current. Attack problems. Act proactively. These are four rules that can improve family farm decision-making, according to Don Tyler, management coach and advisor. “Avoid going back to old disagreements or unresolved issues,” he offered. “Respond with facts, not innuendo. Don’t use residual anger from previous issues to solve today’s problems.” Tyler shares more relevant advice in his latest Family Farm Coach blog – click here to learn more.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its next round of domestic ethanol production data on Wednesday morning. Production has been robust throughout the month of March, including a record-breaking volume of 1.126 million barrels per day in the week through March 6.
Meantime, could ethanol-fueled tractors someday end farmers’ reliance on diesel? Many barriers still exist before farm vehicles can be powered on pure ethanol, notes Andy Castillo, Farm Progress machinery editor. Still, some companies have developed prototypes, such as John Deere’s 8R tractor, that run on E98. It’s just another way to potentially build domestic demand. Click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Monday were for 335,252 contracts.
Soybean prices carved out double-digit gains
USDA announced lower-than-expected acres in this morning’s Prospective Plantings report, which triggered a round of technical buying that lifted some contracts more than 1% higher. May futures rose 11.25 cents to $11.71, with July futures up 11 cents to $11.86.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the green today. May soymeal futures shifted almost 0.5% higher, with May soyoil futures up 0.6%.
USDA showed lower-than-expected soybean plantings, with an estimated 84.7 million acres in 2026. That was around 750,000 acres below the average trade guess of 85.549 million acres. It would also be 4% higher than 2025’s footprint of 81.215 million acres, if realized.
Quarterly grain stocks were a bit higher than expected, with 2.105 billion bushels as of March 1, 2026. That was slightly above the average trade guess of 2.067 billion bushels and moderately above year-ago volume of 1.911 billion bushels.
The latest Iowa Farm Custom Rate Survey showed increases across all categories of operations surveyed. Those increases ranged from 0.3% for grain bin and machinery rental rates to 8.5% for preharvest operations (tillage, spraying, etc.). And a recent runup in fuel prices could tighten margins further – a 50-cent-per-gallon increase would raise total machinery costs by around 5%, according to Ann Johanns, ISU Extension program specialist. Click here to learn more.
Soybean settlements on Monday were for 178,699 contracts.
Winter wheat prices made moderate inroads
Prices moved 1.25% to 1.5% higher following a round of technical buying that was largely spurred by lower-than-expected acres (more on that below) and decent demand optimism, despite large domestic and global supplies. May Chicago SRW futures rose 9.25 cents to $6.1625, with May Kansas City HRW futures also up 9.25 cents to $6.3550.
USDA predicts the lowest all-wheat plantings since the agency began keeping records in 1919, with an estimated 43.775 million acres. Among that total includes winter wheat plantings totaling 32.41 million acres and spring wheat plantings reaching 9.415 million acres.
Quarterly grain stocks nearly match trade expectations, with 1.300 billion bushels as of March 1, 2026. That was slightly below the average analyst estimate of 1.310 billion bushels and a bit above year-ago volume of 1.237 billion bushels.
CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 123,733 contracts.