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This week started off with a bang after corn, soybean and winter wheat prices all captured double-digit gains in a red-hot Monday session. That was largely thanks to reports that China has pledged to purchase another $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually for the next three years. However, that rally failed to gather much additional momentum on Tuesday. Corn futures faced fractional cuts, while soybeans found narrowly mixed results. Winter wheat prices were mixed but mostly higher today. That begs the question – what’s next? Keep an eye on the ongoing situation in Iran and rainy weather in the Midwest that could finally slow down what has been a relatively swift planting season in most areas.
Bountiful rains stretching from South Texas through Ohio could deliver 1” to 2” or more between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Most of the Corn Belt will see at least some measurable moisture heading into the weekend, which could slow down spring fieldwork in some areas. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more wet weather for the Southern Plains, Mid-South and Southeast between May 26 and June 1, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for most of the central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow slid 169 points lower in afternoon trading to 49,516, a common response to rising bond yields as wary investors are keeping an eye on geopolitical fighting in and around Iran. Energy futures tilted into the red, with Brent crude oil spilling more than 0.5% lower this afternoon to $111 per barrel. Gasoline futures fell more than 1.5%. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
Corn prices failed to protect overnight gains
Prices were moderately higher at times ahead of Tuesday’s session before traders returned to a pattern of technical selling that led to very modest losses today. September futures eased 0.75 cents lower to $4.8150, while December futures slipped 0.25 cents to $4.9775.
Corn plantings improved from 57% completion a week ago up to 76% as of Sunday. That was slightly above the average analyst estimate of 75%, with individual trade guesses ranging between 73% and 78%. That was also identical to 2025’s pace and moderately ahead of the prior five-year average of 70%. Physiologically, emergence trended from 23% a week ago up to 39% through May 17.
WTTW reported that gas prices in Chicago have jumped 70 cents higher in the past month and are up $1.70 year-over-year, per data from AAA, with Sam Ori (executive director of the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute declaring the Strait of Hormuz’ closure is “the biggest disruption in the history of the oil market.” Fortunately, most farmers were able to secure fertilizer needs for the current season, but depending on the duration of the Iran conflict, fall and spring 2027 applications could be severely disrupted. Click here to learn more.
Two South Korean importers purchased 5.3 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins in tenders that closed earlier today. The grain is likely sourced from the U.S. or South America, with shipment probable between June and August.
Corn settlements on Monday were for 759,760 contracts.
Soybean prices posted narrowly mixed results
Nearby contracts suffered a modest technical setback, while farther-out contracts dialed in modest gains following an uneven round of technical maneuvering on Tuesday. July futures dropped 3.5 cents to $12.0950, with August futures down 1.25 cents to $12.0975.
The rest of the soy complex faced variable losses. July soymeal futures eroded almost 0.75% lower, while July soyoil futures were down 0.25%.
Soybean plantings improved from 49% to 67% this past week, mirroring analysts’ expectations. Individual trade guesses ranged between 64% and 70%. That leaves this spring’s progress moderately ahead of 2025’s pace of 63% and noticeably above the prior five-year average of 53%. Emergence reached 32% through May 17, up from 20% in the prior week.
Brazilian farmers are experiencing elevated stress right now, too, according to Matthew Kruse, who has operations in both Iowa and Mato Grosso. Financial stress often manifests in rising farm bankruptcies, which in turn triggers stricter lending standards. “Anytime that happens, the lending in Brazil starts to tighten,” he said. “I think a lot of the banks will begin to shut off some farmers as time goes forward.” Kruse shared additional thoughts on the situation – click here to learn more.
Soybean settlements on Monday were for 356,055 contracts.
Winter wheat prices were mixed but mostly higher
With quality ratings continuing to fall (more on that below), traders were able to engage in another round of technical buying on Tuesday. July Chicago SRW futures added 2.75 cents to $6.6725, while July Kansas City HRW futures held steady at $7.0375.
Winter wheat quality ratings eroded another point lower this past week, with 27% of the crop now rated in good-to-excellent condition. Analysts were expecting to see ratings hold steady, in contrast. Another 30% of the crop is rated fair (down two points from last week), with the remaining 43% rated poor or very poor (up three points from last week). Physiologically, 71% of the crop is now headed, up from 61% a week ago.
Spring wheat plantings moved from 53% completion last week up to 73% through May 17. That’s behind both 2025’s pace of 80% but still moderately ahead of the prior five-year average of 66%. Emergence reached 39%, versus the prior five-year average of 34%.
And finally, could a GPS update in 2027 affect field maps and guidance systems for some farmers? “This is definitely a big deal,” said Luke Fuhrer, a precision ag engineer at Iowa State University’s Digital Ag Innovation Lab. “The datum shifts could be 1 to 2 meters — that’s roughly 3 to 6 feet off.” Farm Progress machinery editor Andy Castillo took a closer look at the situation – click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Monday were for 173,483 contracts.