This winter, my air travel has been eventful. Ice, snow, tornadoes, and heavy turbulence have turned routine flights into restless nights and disrupted sleep. On two occasions, my flights were diverted during final approach—only to learn later from the news that runway issues had caused the detours.
Interestingly, the turbulence in the skies mirrors the economic uncertainty on the ground. From shifting trade dynamics to geopolitical tensions, the disruption is real—impacting both long- and short-term decision-making in our businesses and personal lives. As a speaker and educator, I often feel like a lightning rod for public sentiment. The questions are many, the answers elusive, and the landscape shifts almost daily. So, what does all this mean for agriculture and those tasked with making decisions in an increasingly unpredictable world?
Tariffs: The New Headwinds
Tariffs and sanctions are surging like an economic tsunami, reshaping global markets. Whether in agriculture, manufacturing, technology, or services, the need to renegotiate trade terms for fairness is clear. Historically, the WTO (World Trade Organization), the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) and other agreements helped establish stability. But the rapid acceleration of deglobalization has forced countries, including the U.S., to act with greater urgency.
The result? A volatile mix of tariffs, counter-tariffs, and sanctions—all unfolding in a geopolitical environment where over half of the global population has voted in major elections within the past 15 months.
Over the next few months, I urge my readers to think critically about the implications of these global shifts—not just for the U.S., but for the entire world.
Shifting Alliances and Global Strategy
Longstanding relationships between the U.S. and key allies—including Canada, Mexico, and Europe—are under strain. Meanwhile, BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), particularly China, are capitalizing on this fragmentation. Through strategic investments and currency realignments, these countries are bolstering their own access to food, fiber, and fuel security.
This realignment enhances the competitive advantage of the Global South, while Western nations find themselves increasingly divided—economically and militarily.
At home, I’m noticing a growing disconnect between the agriculture sector and the non-farming public. The fallout from recent elections, coupled with rising concerns over government subsidies and out-of-control fiscal spending, is creating tension. As Congress prepares to revisit tax law, the Farm Bill, and potential new aid packages later this year, this divide could widen.
Watch closely how Canada and Mexico respond—particularly as they pursue deeper economic ties with Europe and China. Conversations around a “new world order” in post-globalization trade are already underway.
History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes
We’ve seen this before. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of June 1930 did not cause the Great Depression, but it contributed to the storm. Nearly a century later, a modern-day “Smoot-Hawley 2.0” could have similarly profound consequences—economically, politically, and socially.
As individuals, businesses, and an industry, we must navigate today’s turbulence in hopes of finding smoother air ahead.
On the Radar Screen
In this volatile environment, keep your eye on key indicators:
- Global Equity Markets: A correction of more than 20% could signal a broader recession.
- Unemployment Data: Pay particular attention to high-income and younger demographics.
- The Service-Based Economy: Stimulus, stock market gains, and real estate appreciation have supported it so far—but, as the saying goes, “stairs up, elevator down.” The faucet could shut off faster than expected.