The Kruse family in northwest Iowa has weathered flooding and drought, but an optimal start to the 2025 corn production season doesn’t necessarily bode well.
That’s because Matthew Kruse is not only a farmer but also president of Commstock Investments, an agricultural risk management firm that offers brokerage services, market research and crop insurance.
“I think we're going to look for the crop condition ratings from the USDA to either maintain their current levels or possibly increase here going into the next several weeks,” Kruse says in a video he created June 6. “So, we've advised our customers to keep adding some coverage on their new crop sales as overall conditions have been optimal so far.”
Hedge your crop
Reality is that an optimal U.S. corn season could push global stocks, especially given that production estimates for Brazil’s heavily exported safrinha, or second crop corn, are rising by the day.
“There’re some problem areas in Ohio and Pennsylvania that have experienced too much rain and flooding. But here in western Iowa, so far, a lot of the drought areas have been reduced, and benefited from rains,” Kruse says. “It's still early. … July and August are more of the critical weather months obviously as moisture demand increases over time, but so far things are looking pretty good.”
And that’s where Kruse’s market strategy recommendation comes in: protect the prices you’re getting now. The market can move in either direction – depending on supply and demand fundamentals and crop conditions.
U.S. farmers don’t control the weather, but they can use marketing tools to protect their price opportunities.