Reading the numbers in Tuesday’s USDA crop reports might have given folks that swirling, twirling seeing-the-world-upside-down feeling of riding a whirly-gig at the county fair.
But you weren’t at the fair. And this was real life.
Corn numbers soared. Corn prices crashed. Soybean numbers dropped. And soybean prices lifted—a little.
So, how do you get a ticket to the rock wall instead? Because we can handle a tough climb. We just need to feel like we’re going up.
That chance could still come, Economist Brian Basting says.
"There's certainly some chapters yet to be written in this 2025 crop," Basting says. "I think as producers, you want to embrace that volatility moving forward and accept that we're in a new environment here."
On this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Basting walks viewers through USDA’s significant surprises in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and crop production reports. He notes the stark divergence between corn and soybean futures.
- Corn production estimates jumped to a record 16.7 billion bushels, with nearly 2 million additional harvested acres, which sent prices down 13 cents or so. "The acreage numbers were really a shocker,” Basting says.
- Soybean acreage, on the rotational side of the coin, went down about 2.5 million acres, stabilizing carryout around 290 million bushels and pushing prices 21 cents and higher.
Basting considers the variables that could change those numbers, giving growers hope in considering the carry and penciling out storage while building a firm floor. The 2025 U.S. corn crop, for instance, is not in the bin.
“There’s a big question mark yet by that yield number,” Basting says. “We're still deciding that final yield number, which as you know, and your viewers know, is a big component to that production number. I think there is room for uncertainty. There's room for volatility.”
He notes the grain crops have “pretty good carry in the futures market at the moment.”
For example, Basting says, “the carry from September futures to December corn futures is about 22 to 23 cents. That's encouraging a producer to keep the grain away from the market, particularly if you have on farm storage. Now, I would emphasize that you still want to have a floor underneath those bushels.”
Play out your options
While these reports delivered upside momentum for soybeans, that could change.
“For the time being, the balance sheet is much more constructive for strength in soybeans than it is for corn,” Basting says. “It doesn't guarantee that this rally is going to continue, but I'd want to remain as flexible as possible. As a producer, leave that upside open, but also maintain the floor underneath the market here at this time.”
Opportunity for an upside is important for both grain crops.
Despite the current projections, uncertainty remains about final yields. Basting advises farmers to focus on flexibility, pay close attention to their operational needs and stay steady.
“All of us would like to sell a December [corn] futures to $4.50, $4.75, where it was several months ago. That ship has sailed. We work with what we have today,” Basting says. “We start to look at our variables, including our on-farm capacity, our cash flow needs, our actual crop, if it's going to be above our APH.”
Stick to the play
Going for broke—trying to make up for missed opportunities—is a Hail Mary begging for a fumble. Instead, Basting says, manage risk and move steadily forward.
“The market can surprise us, as it did today, on any given day,” Basting says. “So, you want to maintain a disciplined marketing strategy.”
For more from Basting on where markets could go, how China and Brazil figure into the two-crop equation and ways farmers can market for stability while maintaining flexibility, view this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.