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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Whether Tuesday’s USDA acreage and stocks reports send corn and soybeans skyward, subterranean or somewhere in between, is anyone’s guess. But don’t get sucked into a USDA guessing game, Farmer’s Keeper CEO Nick Tsiolis says. “Don’t play the guessing game. Spread out your sales and hedge your bets,” Tsiolis says in our latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video.

Corn pulls back after biofuels-driven gains

May corn futures fell 1.5 cents to $4.6575 per bushel late in overnight trading after advancing 4.75 cents Wednesday to $4.6725, the contract’s second straight daily advance. December futures fell 0.5 cent to $4.9275, up over 23 cents this month.

Corn technicals strengthened slightly Wednesday as May futures moved back toward the upper end of the past month’s trading range and posted a second consecutive close above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.63. May futures are now within 13 cents of a 10-month high at $4.76 posted March 9. Downside levels to watch include last week’s low at $4.4925.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose almost 4.75 cents Wednesday to just above $4.2450. Tuesday’s average was about 42.5 cents below May futures, narrowing from 43.25 cents a week earlier.

The war with Iran continued to consume market focus, with crude oil surging overnight and the Middle East conflict dragging on. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump continues to hope to bring the Iran conflict to an end in the coming weeks, but Tehran has so far rejected direct talks with Washington, at least publicly, with about 48 hours remaining before a U.S. pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure expires to allow for negotiations.

May WTI crude rose over $3.30, or almost 4%, to $93.64 per barrel late in overnight trading. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed over 4% to $106.53.

While the crude oil rally appears to be providing less and less upside impetus for corn, bullish demand dynamics continue to underpin prices. On Wednesday, corn futures climbed Wednesday after the Environmental Protection Agency issued a waiver to allow summer sales of E15 gasoline this year amid efforts to ease soaring fuel costs, signaling greater demand for ethanol. The EPA also issued a second waiver suspending all federal and state regulations limiting the sale of E10 gasoline, which is blended with 10% ethanol.

The move repeats a strategy President Trump used in 2025, and that was previously used for three years under former President Joe Biden, to broaden availability of E15 gasoline during the summer.

Traders await USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings report, which is expected to show a pullback in U.S. corn plantings following last year’s nine-decade high at 98.79 million acres. USDA will also report quarterly Grain Stocks the same day.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant about 94.371 million acres to corn this year, based on the average estimate in an analyst survey. Estimates ranged from 92.6 million acres to 96 million acres. The average estimate would be up slightly from USDA’s February estimate at 94 million acres.

StoneX said it forecast corn plantings at 94.65 million acres, which based on an estimated average nationwide yield at 183 bushels per acre would produce a harvest of about 15.83 billion bushels, down 7% from last year’s record 17.02-billion-bushel crop. Under this scenario, 2026-27 ending stocks would shrink to 1.74 billion bushels, down 18% from 2025-26 but still historically high.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, cautioned that a number of caveats could alter the acreage and supply outlook.

“Keep in mind that the bulk of the (USDA acreage) surveys were returned in the first week of March, when most farmers were still thinking that perhaps this Iran war would be relatively short-lived,” Suderman said in a note. “Fertilizer supplies were already mostly in place for this year's crops, with the biggest exception being in areas of the northwestern Midwest that were expected to see some increased corn acres following last year's bin-busting crop.

Today’s USDA weekly export sales numbers should underscore a record demand pace for corn.

Analysts expect net 2025-26 U.S. corn sales to range from 700,000 metric tons to 1.5 million metric tons (27.6 million to 59.1 million bushels) during the week ended March 19, based on a Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 1.172 MMT, down 22% from the previous week and down 18% from the four-week average.

The nation’s ethanol distillers stepped up production last week, perhaps a reflection of the recent rally in oil prices. Ethanol production averaged 1.116 million barrels per day for the week ended March 20, up 2.1% from the previous week, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Over the past four weeks, output averaged 1.108 million barrels per day, up 2.7% from the same period in 2025.

Weekly ethanol exports tumbled 32% to 119,000 barrels per day, the third consecutive weekly decline and a 10-week low. Ethanol stocks grew another 3% for the week to 27.2 million barrels, the highest in a year.

While ethanol production remains above last year’s levels, it continues to lag the pace required to reach USDA’s full-year use projection for 5.6 billion bushels, according to StoneX analyst Randy Mittelstaedt. With many distilleries nearing a seasonal maintenance period when output typically slows, whether the USDA target is reached is “highly dependent” on the degree of this year's seasonal production slowdown, he said.

“If seasonal downtime this year runs comparable to the last two years, it appears increasingly unlikely the USDA's 5.6-billion-bushel corn for ethanol usage estimate will be met,” Mittelstaedt said.

Soybean acreage likely to jump sharply

May soybeans fell 1 cent to $11.7075 overnight after jumping 16.75 cents Wednesday to $11.7175, the contract’s highest close since March 13. November soybeans fell 0.75 cent to $11.4925, still up about 85 cents since the beginning of February.

Wednesday’s rally firmed soybeans’ technical posture somewhat, but May futures still closed under the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($11.69 and $11.7925, respectively), for the eighth day in a row. Futures are still down sharply from a 21-month high near $12.39 posted March 12. While prices could muster a modest near-term upside breakout, a return to the recent highs seems unlikely barring a significantly bullish USDA acreage figure Tuesday.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 16.75 cents Wednesday to $10.9775. Wednesday’s average was about 74 cents below May futures, narrowing from 75 cents a week earlier.

Soybean futures disregarded oil market strength overnight but gained a boost Wednesday following reports a long-awaited meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping will take place in Beijing on May 14-15. Trump will also host Xi for a “reciprocal visit” in Washington, D.C., later this year, the White House said. The announcement amounts to a roughly six-week postponement of the China summit, which was expected to occur in late March and early April.

Soybeans retain support from prospects for greater biofuels demand as the market awaits the White House’s “Celebration of Agriculture” event Friday, when the administration is expected to announce ramped-up biofuels blending requirements.

Longer-term price upside may be limited by expectations from bearish supply fundamentals, including a likely-record Brazil crop and outlook for a sharp increase in U.S. soybean plantings this spring. On Wednesday, private firm Agroconsult said it raised its estimate for 2026 Brazilian soybean production by 0.9% to a record 184.7 MMT (6.79 billion bushels), following a field survey.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant about 85.549 million acres to soybeans this year, based on the analyst survey. Estimates ranged from 84.25 million acres to 86.5 million acres. The average estimate would be up slightly from USDA’s February estimate at 85 million acres and up over 5% from a six-year low in 2025.

USDA’s export sales update today is expected to show relatively light numbers for soybeans. Net 2025-26 U.S. soybean sales for the week ended March 19 are seen at 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT (7.35 million to 18.4 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales totaled 298,200 MT, down 42% from the average for the previous four weeks.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments totaled 1.352 billion bushels, down 19% from the same period last year. USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 totaled 10.98 MMT (403.4 million bushels), roughly half the 21.4 MMT sold by this point in 2024-25.

Wheat acres expected to decline

May SRW wheat fell 2.5 cents to $5.9525 after climbing 7.75 cents Wednesday to $5.9775, back around the mid-point of this month’s trading range. Prices remain down sharply from a nine-month intraday high of $6.4175 posted March 9. May HRW wheat rose 0.75 cent to $6.1850 after surging 13.75 cents Wednesday to $6.1775, the contract’s highest close since March 19.

Winter wheat technicals strengthened Wednesday, with both May HRW and SRW futures posting bullish outside-day higher closes. Further upside could lead to breakouts above downtrend lines drawn from the early-March highs. May HRW futures also closed above the 10-day SMA ($6.1550).

May spring wheat rose 0.5 cent to $6.4125 after jumping 9.5 cents Wednesday.

Winter wheat futures slipped overnight as traders ignored rallying crude and continued to fixate on a wetter outlook for the U.S. Plains, which could bring some much-needed moisture to dry fields. The latest 6-to-10 and 8-to-14-day outlooks from the National Weather Service continue to show strong precipitation chances for the Plains and Midwest starting later this month into April.

USDA’s March 31 report is expected to show a decline in wheat acres, reflecting the market’s protracted price slump that’s squeezed growers.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant about 44.876 million acres to all varieties of wheat this year, based on the analyst survey. Estimates ranged from 43.05 million acres to 46.6 million acres. In February, USDA pegged all wheat plantings at 45 million acres, down 300,000 acres from last year.

Earlier this week, continued erosion in state-level USDA crop ratings further underscored the potential for drought damage. Nearly all of Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas was covered by “moderate” to “extreme” drought as of March 17, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

In Kansas, 46% of the winter wheat crop was rated “good” or “excellent” at the start of this week, down from 52% a week earlier and 56% two weeks earlier, according to the state’s Department of Agriculture. Topsoil moisture across Kansas was rated 60% “short” or “very short,” up from 48% a week earlier, and 43% “adequate.”

Today’s USDA export sales report is expected to continue to show light wheat purchases as the 2025-26 U.S. marketing year winds down.

Net weekly U.S. wheat sales may range from 100,000 MT to 400,000 MT (3.67 million to 14.7 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. The previous week’s sales were just 189,900 MT, down 36% from the four-week average.

For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) totaled 870.3 million bushels, up almost 14% from the same period in 2024-25 and 96.7% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

Moisture relief in sight for dry Plains

Rains are expected for most of the eastern Corn Belt the rest of the week, with 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches of rain possible for much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio through Sunday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour outlook. The western Corn Belt and the Plains should stay mostly dry.

Longer-term forecasts continue to reflect improved moisture prospects for the Plains and other parts of the central U.S. through the first week of April. The National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover March 31-April 8, call for above-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for most of that period. The most extreme high temperatures are seen shifting from the Southern Plains to the Southeast.

Stock index futures sink amid Iran war worries

Stock index futures fell overnight as crude oil prices spiked higher and the Middle East conflict dragged on with no imminent conclusion in sight. On Wednesday, Iran’s foreign minister reportedly told state media that top authorities in the Middle Eastern nation are reviewing an American proposal to end the war, but Tehran has no intention of having talks with the U.S.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes dropped about 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively, while Dow futures slipped 0.8%. The U.S. dollar index firmed 0.2%.

May WTI crude rose over $3.30, or almost 4%, to $93.64 per barrel late in overnight trading. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed over 4% to $106.53. Gold futures sank over 2% to about $4,443 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: