I’d like to offer up two things you probably won’t hear on a farm:
- That took less time than I expected.
- Everything went according to plan.
These two things don’t have to be related to the same situation, unless that situation involves working cattle with family. In that case, they both definitely apply.
Cows will get out. People will swear. Somebody’ll yell, “I knew that was gonna happen!”
Still, the possibility that things can go right on the farm certainly exists.
Take, for example, our 2025 planting season. In this corner of western Illinois, we planted once and finished by Easter, we got timely rains, and we didn’t speak of it again unless we had wood to knock on. It was freakishly normal. If southern Illinois friends asked how planting was going, I changed the subject. No need to throw salt in that gaping wound.
So, when things do go right — at planting or otherwise — what then? What do we do?
I’d argue we don’t give those times enough attention.
We’re in a season in agriculture where everything feels doom and gloom. Markets are in the tank. Inputs are stupid high. No one outside of ag understands what farming is, and politicians don’t care what farmers actually want. Drift over to AgTwitter or a couple of the toxic Facebook farmer groups, and you’d think the sky is definitely falling.
Those are tough places to sit. As farmers, we have to be realists, but we also gotta acknowledge the good and hope for better. As George Bernard Shaw once said, an optimist invented the airplane; a pessimist invented the parachute. Both contribute to society.
So, here’s the good as I see it:
1. Rally on the horizon? Luke Williams, Advance Trading, sees a corn rally possibility. We did not coordinate our coverage, but in his latest column for sister magazine Farm Futures, he wrote, “Don’t sweat the doom and gloom in agriculture right now. I think better times are coming.”
Why? In late 2024, USDA predicted a record U.S. corn yield and high carryout. Then winter World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports drastically reduced yield and increased usage, cutting carryout by nearly a third over 60 days. Prices rallied dramatically. Farmers cleaned out their bins. Williams thinks there’s a solid possibility of the same thing happening in early 2026.
2. Snow adds moisture. September and October were both dry months across Illinois, especially in the northern half of the state, with statewide precipitation at 3.4 inches below normal. But November brought 8 to 12 inches more snow than normal in northern and central Illinois. We had nearly 10 inches at our place the weekend after Thanksgiving, which was nice because our well ran dry the weekend before — the first time that’s happened in 28 years.
A couple of northern Illinois farmers recently told me this is the most snow they’ve had at this point in the year since the winter of 1977-78, and if you pushed that snow, you probably just shivered.
3. Beef markets have mostly recovered. Back in October, markets went limit down following the president’s plan to import beef from Argentina. What a gut punch for anybody who had to sell cattle last fall.
But here’s the thing: Cattle prices are high because U.S. beef supply is low, and that’s not changing. Total beef production is projected down 4.5% in 2025 and is expected to decrease 4% or more each year in 2026 and 2027, according to Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel. Argentinian imports would add a mere 0.5% to domestic supply, which won’t lower prices at the meat case. Low supply equals higher prices.
The result of chaotic political intervention? Short-term pain for beef producers, no relief for consumers, and no real long-term effect on cattle markets — which should remain high in 2026.
4. Young people still want to farm. I see it all over the state, from farm families with kids who’ve just joined the farm to my college kids’ friends who plan to come back. Young people who don’t have a farm to come back to are disappointed. They see hope in production agriculture, and we should, too.
Years and years ago, Mike Wilson wrote for Prairie Farmer, warning farmers that if they’re always complaining, their kids won’t want to come back. He was dead-on accurate. Who wants to farm if all you hear is how bad it is? Complainers are tough to work with, even (or especially) if you’re related to them.
So, what do we need for 2026? Manage for the bad and focus on the good.
Let’s keep our boots rooted in reality and our hope springing eternal.
Comments? Email holly.spangler@farmprogress.com.