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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

It’s here, finally. USDA’s much-anticipated Prospective Plantings report drops at 11 a.m. CT, along with quarterly Grain Stocks. The numbers will be key influencers for market direction this spring. Will USDA report a sharp drop in corn plantings and corresponding surge in soybeans, as trade expects? Or will we see a few curveballs? Read a quick rundown of Farm Futures’ acreage survey.

Corn trade expects sharp acreage drop

May corn futures fell 1.75 cents to $4.54 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier dropping to $4.54, the contract’s lowest intraday price since March 18. December futures fell 2.75 cents to $4.8125 after also slipping near two-week low.

Corn technicals softened further overnight with May futures dropping into the bottom half of the past month’s range and poised to close under the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), about $4.5925, for the second day in a row, which hasn’t happened since mid-February. Speculators sold actively the past two days and the market could be at risk of further downside if funds continue to pare back a still heavy net long position. Downside levels to watch include the $4.50 area.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell over 5.25 cents Monday to just over $4.14. Monday’s average was about 41.75 cents below May futures, narrowing from 42.75 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures slipped overnight as traders disregarded gains in crude oil and waited for today’s USDA Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports, which will help drive price direction in the month ahead.

Oil prices climbed even after The Wall Street Journal reported President Trump told aides he is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. May WTI crude rose gained just under 1% to $103.84 per barrel late in overnight trading. On Monday, WTI crude posted its first close above $100 since 2022 and has soared 55% this month.

Analysts expect a drop in U.S. corn ground after farmers last year boosted plantings to a nine-decade high at 98.79 million acres. Plantings are seen around 94.371 million acres, based on the average estimate in a Reuters survey of analysts (see table below). The average estimate would be up slightly from USDA’s February forecast, 94 million acres.

The following table summarizes analysts’ 2026 acreage estimates for USDA’s Prospective Plantings report (based on a Reuters survey):

USDA will also report quarterly Grain Stocks the same day. Nationwide corn stockpiles as of March 1 are expected to come in around 9.04 billion bushels, up 11% from a year earlier. March 1 soybean supplies are seen around 2.06 billion bushels, up 8%.

While the plantings report may show a jump in U.S. soybean acreage, any decline in corn may not be as large as some may think. A Farm Futures survey suggests a relatively modest 2.6% decline in corn ground from 2025. Read more on the Farm Futures survey results.

Monday USDA weekly inspections extended offered the latest illustration of record corn export demand. Corn inspected for export for the week ended March 26 totaled 1.79 million metric tons (70.5 million bushels), up 5.1% from the previous week and up 4.2% from the same week a year earlier, USDA said. Mexico was the top destination at 369,416 metric tons.

For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments now total 1.826 billion bushels, up 36% from the same period in 2024-25 and 55% of USDA’s full-year export projection for a record 3.3 billion bushels. Year-to-date corn export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 298 million bushels, according to a StoneX estimate.

Based on the strong shipping pace, it’s plausible USDA could hike its full-year corn export target another 75 million bushels, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman said in a report. How corn exports finish the marketing year, which ends on August 31, “will likely hinge on A) the size of Brazil's safrinha corn crop, and B) whether corn is included in the trade deal with China when President Trump visits Beijing on May 14,” he added.

Soybeans at risk of bearish acreage surprise

May soybeans rose 2.5 cents to $11.6225 overnight after edging up 0.5 cent Monday to $11.5975, around the middle of the past two weeks’ range. November soybeans rose 0.5 cent to $11.4450.

Soybeans extended sideways pre-report action overnight, with May futures hovering around the middle of the roughly 35-cent range of the past two weeks. A bearish or bullish surprise in today’s reports could spur a breakout, with key near-term upside levels including the 20-day SMA ($11.78) and last week’s high (around $11.80). Downside levels to watch include the March low ($11.4525) and the 50-day SMA ($11.4425).

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 0.75 cent Monday to $10.8675. Monday’s average was about 73 cents below May futures, narrowing from 74.25 cents a week earlier.

May soymeal rose $1.70 to $316.60 per ton after closing near a two-week low Monday. May soyoil fell 5 points to 68.42 cents per pound. On Monday, May soyoil jumped 1.6% to the highest settlement for a most-active contract since November 2022.

Soybean futures were mixed overnight as crude oil prices extended gains above $100 and demand optimism from last week’s biofuels mandates announcement lingered. But all eyes are on today’s Plantings and Stocks reports, which carry the risk of a bearish surprise, especially if an already-sharp expected acreage increase comes out even bigger than anticipated.

The most immediate impact of today’s USDA acreage numbers will probably be seen in new-crop November soybean futures and other deferred contracts. November futures remain in a sharp uptrend despite expectations for a large jump in plantings, with prices up over 8% from mid-January lows around $10.57.

Based on the Reuters survey, U.S. farmers may plant about 85.549 million acres to soybeans this year, which would be up slightly from USDA’s February estimate at 85 million acres and up over 5% from a six-year low in 2025. However, the Farm Futures survey suggested soybean plantings may increase closer to 6%, or about 4.9 million acres, to 86 million acres.

Longer-term demand optimism continues to underpin the soy complex after the Environmental Protection Agency last Friday announced higher than expected biofuels mandates. The increases are focused on so-called Renewable Volume Obligations for biodiesel and renewable diesel production, while keeping mandates for ethanol blending steady.

Biomass-based diesel “was the biggest winner with a 62% higher mandated level,” CoBank analysts said in a report. While industry stakeholders previously advocated for at least a 5.25 billion-gallon target level for 2026, the EPA “delivered a final rule of 5.4 billion gallons in 2026 and 5.7 billion gallons in 2027.”

President Trump said the new standards will “generate over $10 billion of rural economic benefit, create an estimated 100,000 new jobs and massively increase our nation’s energy supply.”

Stronger demand from domestic crushers serving biofuels producers could help offset sagging export demand.

On Monday, USDA’s weekly inspections report showed a steep drop in soybean shipments even as China continued to buy U.S. soybeans. Soybean inspections for the week ended March 26 totaled 586,427 MT (21.5 million bushels), down 47% from the previous week and down 28% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 270,424 MT.

Shipments are down sharply for the year after a trade dispute with the Trump administration prompted China to avoid buying U.S. beans for much of 2025. U.S. For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 1.094 billion bushels, down 27% from the same period in 2024-25 and a seven-year low.

Following a trade truce with the U.S. in October, China resumed buying U.S. beans and has since taken shipment of about 75% of an initial target, reportedly 441 million bushels. “Once that is done, I expect the shipment pace to drop off pretty significantly considering how cheap Brazilian soybeans are currently being offered on the global market,” Suderman said, unless China agrees to buy more at an expected meeting with Trump in May. I'm skeptical of that, but I can't rule it out.”

Wheat acreage likely to extend multi-year decline

May SRW wheat rose 1.75 cents to $6.0875 after rebounding from initial declines Monday to post a 2-cent gain. Futures remain off sharply from a nine-month intraday high at $6.4175 March 9.

May HRW wheat rose 1.75 cents to $6.28 after slumping 6.5 cents Monday to $6.2625 to halt a three-day winning string. May spring wheat rose 0.25 cent to $6.5225 after advancing 3.75 cents Monday to $6.51, the fifth straight daily advance and the highest close for a most-active contract since June.

Wheat futures mustered a corrective bounce overnight as prices retained some underpinning from expectations for smaller acreage in today’s Plantings report. But upside is being limited by hopes that widespread rains across much of the Southern Plains this week will bring some relief to dry fields.

“Weather maps have turned wetter for the Southern Plains, with the easter regions getting good rains over the next seven days but with lighter coverage in the western areas,” StoneX analyst Mike O’Dea said in a note. Longer-range maps continue to suggest more rain for the drier areas, including eastern Colorado, western Kansas and Nebraska, he added.

USDA’s plantings report likely will extend a multi-year decline in wheat acres as a prolonged price slump discouraged growers.

U.S. farmers are expected to plant about 44.876 million acres to all varieties of wheat this year, based on the analyst survey. Estimates ranged from 43.05 million acres to 46.6 million acres. In February, USDA pegged all wheat plantings at 45 million acres, down 300,000 acres from last year.

Plantings of spring wheat varieties other than durum are expected to shrink 1.5% to 9.843 million acres, the lowest since 1970.

Several weeks of eroding state-level winter wheat crop ratings have also fueled concern that Plains drought may harm yields.

Late Monday, USDA reported just 40% of the Kansas wheat crop in “good” or “excellent” condition as of Sunday, down from 46% a week earlier and the fourth consecutive weekly drop in the closely-watched figure. About 22% of the crop was rated poor-to-very poor.

Topsoil moisture across Kansas was rated 65% “short” or “very short,” up from 60% a week earlier, and 43% “adequate,” down from 43%.

Also Monday, USDA reported wheat export inspections for the week ended March 26 at 364,219 MT (13.4 million bushels), down 21% from the previous week and down 27% from a year earlier. Japan was the top destination at 107,579 MT. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 745.6 million bushels, up 17% from the same period in 2024-25 and 83% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.

“We're down to the final nine or 10 weeks of the wheat marketing year, with year-to-date inspections exceeding the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 53 million bushels,” Suderman said.

Soaking rains across Plains, Midwest this week

A band of rainfall stretching from the Southern Plains through the eastern Corn Belt may bring 1 inch to 3 inches across the region today through Friday, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Eastern Kansas and Much of Oklahoma could receive 0.5 inch to 1.5 inches.

Longer-term forecasts indicate seasonal temperatures and greater rainfall odds for the central U.S. during the first week of April before warmer conditions return. The National Weather Service’s latest 8-to-14-day outlook, which covers April 7-13, shifted to above-normal precipitation prospects for most of the Midwest and Plains.

Stock index futures jump on reports Trump mulling war wind-down

Stock index futures jumped overnight after The Wall Street Journal reported President Trump told aides he is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Oil prices rose nonetheless, keeping Brent crude on track for a record monthly advance.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes both rose about 1%, while Dow futures also added 1%. The underlying S&P 500 ended Monday at its lowest level since August and is down 9.4% from a late-January record high, near the 10% threshold that’s typically viewed as a correction. The U.S. dollar index was little changed after climbing Monday to a 10-month high.