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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
“Beans in the teens” may sound like music to a farmer’s ears. It hasn’t happened in the futures market in over two years, but there are scenarios that could extend this year’s rally in soybeans, veteran analyst Bryce Knorr says. Futures seem undervalued, and USDA’s recent forecast for an $11.40 average farm price next year suggests a move above $13 or even $14 is possible.
White House says China will buy at least $17 billion annually in U.S. farm goods through 2028 on top of a recent soybean pledge.
Corn futures claw back most of last week’s selloff
July corn futures rose 0.5 cent to $4.7750 per bushel late in overnight trading after surging 21.25 cents Monday to $4.77, clawing back most of a 25-cent nosedive the previous two days. December corn fell 0.25 cent to $4.9775 after erasing initial overnight gains. The new-crop contract gained 17 cents Monday to $4.98, up from a four-week low close Friday.
Corn technicals extended Monday’s strength as July and December futures moved back to the top end of the past month’s ranges. July futures vaulted back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA, currently $4.6850), but remain down from last week’s high ($4.8450) and the May high at ($4.8750). Those levels may pose stiff resistance over the near-term unless funds unleash another wave of buying. December futures briefly edged above $5 overnight before fading.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose 21.25 cents Monday to just over $4.3650. Monday’s average was about 40.5 cents below July futures, narrowing from 41.5 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures extended gains overnight after Monday’s rally, which was triggered by reports China committed to purchasing at least $17 billion of U.S. ag products annually through 2028, in addition to soybean commitments it made in 2025, based on a White House fact sheet released Sunday. The commitment followed meetings between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping last
The announcement could be particularly bullish for wheat and corn futures given the purchases will come on top of the initial soybean deal and would have to involve other ag products, Bloomberg reported. But specifics remain lacking.
Nonetheless, renewed China optimism sparked a flood of speculator buying across the grain and oilseed complex Monday, with managed money funds buying a net of about 51,000 corn futures contracts, the equivalent of 255 million bushels, based on a StoneX estimate. Funds also bought a net 30,000 soybean futures contracts, and 10,000 contracts each in soyoil and SRW wheat.
The $17-billion pledge, in addition to existing commitments on soybeans, would take China's total U.S. farm imports close to $28 billion to $30 billion a year, traders and analysts said, sharply above last year's figure of $8 billion. In 2024, U.S. ag exports to China were valued at $24.7 billion, behind only Mexico and Canada, according to USDA data.
Elevated risk from the U.S.-Iran war continues to underpin grain markets, though crude oil fell overnight after Trump said he had paused a planned attack on Iran to allow for negotiations. July WTI crude futures fell 0.5% to $103.83 per barrel after gaining over 3% Monday to a two-week high.
Bullishness over China and the Middle East war overshadowed a bearish USDA planting progress update, which showed corn planting nearing completion.
USDA reported 76% of the U.S. corn crop planted as of Sunday, up from 57% a week earlier and above the 70% average for the past five years. Illinois and Indiana jumped to 75% and 67% planted, respectively, from 54% and 51% a week earlier. Iowa was 88% planted, up from 72% a week earlier and above the 82% five-year average.
Some eastern Corn Belt states have been slowed by recent rains and more rain is forecast for the rest of the week. Ohio lagged at 52% planted, but that was still up from 40% a week earlier and above the 40% five-year average.
USDA also said 39% of the U.S. corn crop had emerged, up from 23% a week earlier and ahead of the 37% five-year average.
Also Monday, USDA’s weekly inspections update posted a drop in corn shipments, suggesting that higher U.S. prices and the availability of cheaper Argentina supplies are slowing export demand. Corn inspected for export during the week ended May 14 totaled 1.379 million metric tons (54.3 million bushels), down 19% from the previous week and down 22% from the same week a year earlier, USDA said. Japan was the top destination at 440,975 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, corn shipments now total 2.306 billion bushels, up almost 29% from the same period in 2024-25 and 70% of USDA’s full-year export target, a record 3.3 billion bushels.
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Soybean crop over two-thirds planted
July soybeans rose 2 cents to $12.15 overnight after soaring 36 cents Monday and have reclaimed over 70% of a 52-cent selloff at the end of last week. November soybeans rose 1.25 cents to $12.0225 late overnight after rallying 30.25 cents Monday, up from a three-week low close posted Friday.
Soybean technicals regained a near-term bullish bias with Monday’s rally, which sent July futures back near the top of the past two months’ range. Near-term resistance comes in at last week’s high ($12.35), while support is seen at the 10- and 20-day SMAs (around $12.0625 and $12.0025, respectively). November futures remain in a strong four-month uptrend and have climbed within 10 cents of a two-year intraday high at $12.14 posted May 13.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 36.25 cents Monday to just under $11.49. Monday’s average was about 64 cents below July futures, narrowing from 66.75 cents a week earlier.
July soymeal rose $1.70 to $336.20 per ton overnight. July soyoil fell 10 points to 75.53 cents per pound after surging over 2% Monday to 75.63, near a two-week high.
Soybean futures were supported by the China reports overnight, which were enough to spur another round of fund buying, but there’s no indication that any fresh export business for U.S. soybeans is imminent. U.S. planting is running near a record pace and acreage heading for a sharp increase. Those factors, combined with farmer selling, could slow upside price momentum.
China has purchased most of a 12 MMT initial near-term target that followed an October trade truce with the U.S. But it’s unclear when or if the country will follow through on the additional 25 MMT in annual purchase commitments the White House has touted. Analysts are taking a skeptical mindset, noting the lack of Chinese confirmation and details on other commodities.
“China can certainly buy more U.S. soybeans if economics justify it. But Brazil remains the dominant supplier, and structural trade shifts do not reverse because two presidents shake hands in front of cameras,” said Agata Kingsbury, founder and chief economist at Demetrica, a market intelligence consultancy.
“Until actual soybean purchases materialize, this remains what it looks like: a political headline searching for commercial substance,” Kingsbury said in a LinkedIn post Monday. “The market has heard the promises. Now we wait to see the boats.”
USDA reported another big jump in soybean planting last week, putting the crop at over two-thirds seeded.
USDA said 67% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 49% a week earlier and ahead of the 53% five-year average. A year ago, the crop was 63% planted. Illinois and Indiana moved to 74% and 67% planted, respectively, from 57% and 51%. Iowa surged to 80% from 60% a week earlier, above its 68% five-year average. Ohio was 46% planted, up from 34% a week ago.
About 32% of the overall crop had emerged, up from 20% a week earlier and the 23% five-year average.
U.S. soybean shipments fell last week despite additional supply moving to China. Soybeans inspected for expected during the week ended May 14 totaled 483,881 MT (17.8 million bushels), down 27% from the previous week but more than double the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 203,387 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 1.267 billion bushels, down 22% from the same period in 2024-25 and 83% of USDA’s just-downgraded full-year export target of 1.53 billion bushels, a 13-year low.
Wheat conditions deteriorate further amid drought
July SRW wheat rose 5.5 cents to $6.70 after rallying 28.75 cents Monday to $6.6450, the contract’s first gain in four days and its highest close since May 13. Futures are still down two-year high at $6.8825 posted last Thursday.
July HRW wheat rose 5.25 cents to $7.09 after jumping 15.75 cents Monday to $7.0375, breaking a three-day slide. Futures are still down from a high posted last Wednesday at $7.50, the highest intraday price for a most-active HRW contract since September 2023.
July spring wheat rose 6.75 cents to $7.10 after gaining 18 cents Monday to $7.0325.
Wheat extended gains overnight as the White House’s announcement of China purchases stirred demand optimism in grains. Prices remain underpinned by USDA’s surprisingly low winter wheat harvest forecast last week as drought shrinks yield prospects across the Southern Plains. Rain expected this week may help but likely would be too late for much of the crop.
USDA’s weekly wheat crop ratings showed further deterioration as persistent drought in the Southern Plains slashes the harvest outlook. Last week, USDA estimated the 2026-27 total winter wheat crop at 1.048 million bushels, down 25% from 2025-26 and the smallest since 1965.
USDA reported 27% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in “good” or “excellent” condition as of Sunday, down from 28% a week earlier and 52% a year ago. Wheat rated “poor” or “very poor” increased to 43% from 40%. In Kansas, the top wheat-producer, the good-to-excellent rating fell for the sixth consecutive week, dropping to 15% from 17%, while 58% of the state’s crop came in at poor-to-very-poor, up from 51%.
Overall, the U.S. winter wheat crop was 71% headed as of Sunday, up from 61% the previous week and above the 58% average for the past five years. The spring wheat crop improved to 73% planted from 53% a week earlier and ahead of the 66% five-year average.
Results of a crop tour through Kansas last week underscored the severity of the drought. Wheat yield potential in Kansas was expected to drop to a three-year low of 38.9 bushels per acre, crop scouts on an annual Wheat Quality Council tour said Thursday, according to Reuters. The figure was below the five-year crop tour average of 45.5 bpa from 2021-2025. Scouts estimated the Kansas crop at just 218 million bushels, down sharply from 346.8 million bushels last year.
Wheat shipments dropped sharply last week, suggesting the recent price rally may be discouraging global buyers.
USDA reported wheat inspections for the week ended May 14 at 223,972 MT (8.23 million bushels), down 56% from the prior week and down 48% from the same week in 2025. The Philippines was the top destination at 65,999 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, shipments now total 848.7 million bushels, up 11% from the same period a year earlier and 93.3% of USDA’s just-upgraded full-year target of 910 million bushels.
Widespread rains across southern Corn Belt
The eastern and southern Corn Belt and the Delta region are in line for potentially heavy rains the rest of the week, with 1.5 inches to over 3 inches possible for eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas, based on a National Weather Service 5-day outlook. The southern half of Indiana and much of Ohio could receive 1.5 inches to over 2 inches. Lighter totals are seen for the western Corn Belt.
Most of the Midwest and Plains will close out the month with a warming trend, with both the 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover May 24-June 1, calling for above-normal temperatures across the regions. The latest 6-to-10-day retains above-normal rain probabilities for most of the Midwest and Plains, though the 8-to-14-day has turned drier for the eastern Corn Belt.