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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Today’s midterm results may take some time to sort out. For farmers finishing harvest, a more pressing matter is preparing for a 2027 that likely will continue to pose hurdles, including tight margins that are becoming a persistent operating condition. Nutrien Financial’s Jordan Howe recommends focusing on four basic financial building blocks. No. 1: Plan early.
A band of rains stretching from the upper Great Lakes south through Arkansas and much of the Southeast will sweep across the central U.S. this week, bringing five-day totals ranging from 0.5 to 2 inches for most of the central and eastern Corn Belt, according to the National Weather Service. Lighter amounts are seen for the western Corn Belt. Extended forecasts show a return to drier conditions, with the NWS six-to-12-day outlook, covering Nov. 8-12, calling for below-normal moisture odds for the entire Midwest and Plains.
Corn sinks further after active harvest week
December corn fell 3.25 cents to $4.50 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier slipping to $4.4450, the contract’s lowest intraday price since July 6. Futures gained 0.5 cent Monday. March futures fell 3.25 cents to $4.5875.
After showing some stabilization to start the week, corn technicals resumed a slow erosion overnight that pushed December futures further under $4.50 and raised the prospect of a test of the June low at $4.26.
But the market remains severely oversold, with a Relative Strength Index reading around 23.5, a multi-year low. Downside momentum could be close to exhausted with funds having slashed most of a once-record long, setting the stage for a potential price rebound.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 2.75 cents Monday to just over $4.1125. Monday’s average was about 37 cents under December futures, narrowing from 38.5 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures took pressure overnight after USDA reported another jump in harvest progress as farmers took advantage of October’s dry finish to mostly close a once-wide gap with the historical average. Heavy fund liquidation encouraged by Monday’s sell-off in energy markets is also weighing on grains.
Since reaching a record high in mid-September, the managed money net long in corn futures has shrunk by more than 333,000 contracts, or the equivalent of over 1.6 billion bushels, based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. That represents just 20% of a record net long that topped 414,000 contracts in mid-September.
“Managed money still appears to be looking for the exit from the grains and oilseeds,” StoneX analyst Mike Castle said in a note.
Trade focus is shifting to USDA’s Nov. 10 Crop Production report, which some believe will include a slight cut to corn yields. In October, USDA boosted its average U.S. yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.7 bpa from September. USDA also reports its monthly Supply and Demand update Nov. 10.
Late Monday, USDA said 74% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 60% a week earlier and slightly behind the 77% average for that date the past five years. Progress was about 1 percentage point above expectations. Among top states, Illinois rose to 86% complete from 74%, and Indiana rose to 75% from 61%. Iowa jumped to 66% from 47%, but it still trailed its 79% five-year average.
Also Monday, weekly corn export inspections posted a sharp increase, but the year-to-date gap with 2025-26 widened further, and sales commitments continue to lag.
USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week that ended Oct. 29 at a 884,766 metric tons (34.8 million bushels), up 39% from the previous week but down 48% from the same week a year earlier. Mexico was the top destination at 520,923 MT. For 2026-27 to date, corn shipments now total 420.3 million bushels, down 13% from the same period in 2025-26.
Early Monday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 1.73 million metric tons to Mexico. Of the total, 1,135 MMT is for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year, and the remainder is for 2027-28.
“The bigger question on the corn side continues to be the slow pace of sales, not inspections,” Castle said. The big flash sale to Mexico “represents a step in the right direction on that front, but we’ll need to see more progress in the weeks ahead in order to play catch-up with the pace needed to reach USDA’s current 3.3-billion-bushel export target.”
U.S. midterm elections today could reshape the political landscape during President Donald Trump’s next two years and carry implications for farm states. “The big fear for Republicans is that farmers will just stay home or folks in rural areas will just stay home. They don’t feel motivated to vote,” Politico’s Grace Yarrow said in Farm Progress Nation’s “Truth on the Ground.”
Soybeans pressured by record-crop prospect
January soybeans fell 0.5 cent to $12.1625 late overnight after tumbling 17.5 cents Monday to $12.1675, the contract’s sixth-straight daily decline and its lowest settlement since Aug. 14. March futures fell 2.25 cents to $12.2425.
Soybean technicals extended a neutral-bearish posture overnight, with January futures poised for a fifth-straight close below the 100-day simple moving average (about $12.4875). Further weakness could lead to a test of the 200-day SMA ($12.02) and the $12 area, followed by the August low around $11.80. Futures have tumbled over $1.33, or 10%, from a mid-September peak around $13.50.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell almost 12.75 cents Monday to $11.5075, a 2.5-month low. Monday’s average was about 66 cents under January futures, narrowing from 69 cents a week ago.
December soymeal fell $1.90 to $317.70 per ton after shedding $5.00 Monday to $319.60, the contract’s lowest close since Aug. 18. December soy oil fell 23 points to 64.85 cents per pound after sinking 1.2% Monday to 65.08 cents, the contract’s lowest close in over six months.
The soy complex remains under follow-through pressure in the wake of Monday’s steep declines, which were driven in part by a 7% nosedive in crude oil futures. WTI crude was up less than 1% in a modest recovery amid ongoing concern over disruptions to global supplies. Iranian officials said Tehran and Washington remained far from a deal to end the war, and the U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island.
Active harvest and expectations USDA will hike yield estimates in November are also weighing on prices, and funds still hold a sizable net long in soybean futures, the equivalent of nearly 970 million bushels as of the start of last week. Funds were estimated net sellers of about 20,000 futures contracts Monday.
Farmers are nearing the final stages of soybean harvest after another active week. USDA reported 88% of the U.S. soybean crop harvested as of Sunday, up from 79% a week earlier and above the 84% average for the past five years. Progress met expectations.
Illinois improved to 91% harvested from 81% a week earlier, while Indiana was 87% harvested, up from 75%. Iowa surged to 90% complete from 78% a week earlier, but it was even with its five-year average. Ohio was 83% harvested, up from 69%.
Weekly soybean inspections extended a robust clip behind China’s recent buying spree. USDA reported soybean export inspections for the week that ended Oct. 29 at 2.445 MMT (89.8 million bushels), down 2.3% from the prior week and more than double the same week in 2025. China was the top destination at 1.524 MMT.
For 2026-27 to date, soybean shipments now total 447.6 million bushels, up 56% from the same period in 2025-26 and the strongest pace in four years. China accounts for about 62% of that total.
Also Monday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 136,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during 2026-27.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s soybean planting is running ahead of schedule, and weather has favored early crop development, with key growing areas receiving ample rains. At the end of October, the country’s crop was about 56% planted, ahead of the 47% five-year average, according to consultant Safras & Mercado. Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that the country’s soybean plantings at 23% complete, close to the historical average.
Wheat pressured as planting nearly complete
December soft red winter wheat fell 3.75 cents to $6.0275 after gaining 3 cents Monday to $6.0650, as the market extended a modest rebound from a four-month intraday low $5.9325 posted Oct. 28. Futures have declined nine consecutive weeks and are down nearly $2, or 24%, from a three-year high at $7.95 reached in early September.
December hard red wheat fell 6.25 cents to $6.3975 after adding 1.75 cents Monday to $6.46, also extending a small recovery from four-month lows last week. December spring wheat fell 2.5 cents to $6.2325 after gaining 2 cents Monday.
Wheat futures saw little follow-through from Monday’s gains and turned lower overnight, though prices are still maintaining some space above four-month lows posted a week ago. The market otherwise retains a heavy bearish tone tied to ample global supplies and improving crop conditions in the U.S. Plains. The Russia-Ukraine conflict showed few signs of abating after Russia struck power infrastructure.
U.S. winter wheat planting is nearing completion. USDA reported 83% of the winter wheat crop planted as of Sunday, up from 76% the previous week and slightly behind the 84% average for the past five years. Plantings were expected to be about 86% complete. Kansas rose to 86% planted from 80%, 1 percentage point behind its five-year average, and Oklahoma rose to 62% from 51% planted, behind its 79% five-year average.
Among top SRW states, Ohio’s crop climbed to 88% planted from 68%, and it is now ahead of its 86% five-year average. Illinois rose to 84% planted from 70%, ahead of its 81% five-year average.
About 65% of the winter wheat crop had emerged as of Sunday, up from 53% the previous week and even with the five-year average.
USDA also reported its first condition ratings of the season for U.S. winter wheat. The crop posted a combined 44% good-to-excellent rating, short of analysts’ expectations for a figure closer to 50%. A total of 18% of the crop was rated poor-to-very poor.
Hopes for a rebound in export demand for U.S. wheat took a hit Monday after USDA reported weekly inspections at the lowest level in over 23 years.
USDA said wheat inspected for export during the week that ended Oct. 29 totaled 75,413 MT (2.77 million bushels), down 61% from the prior week and down 79% from the same week in 2025. Last week’s total was the lowest for a single week since June 2003, according to StoneX.
Mexico was the top destination at 38,619 MT. For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat shipments now total 276.6 million bushels, down 36% from the same period a year earlier.
Monday’s weak inspections report clashed with an unexpectedly strong weekly export sales report last Thursday that suggested demand may be finally turning around. USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week that ended Oct. 22 at 849,800 MT, over triple the previous week’s sales and the highest for a single week since November 2025.